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08-05-2015, 04:27 PM
The top 10 highest polling candidates in the Republican Presidential Primary will face off for the first time Thursday night, in a debate (http://www.politico.com/blogs/media/2015/05/first-gop-debate-aug-in-cleveland-206951.html) airing on Fox News at 9:00 p.m. Here are five things to watch for during the two hour event.
1. Will anyone take on Trump?
The biggest question on everyone's mind throughout the night will undoubtedly be how the ever controversial Donald Trump's presence will affect the debate. So far, Trump has retained his status as the frontrunner (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html) in the polls, despite numerous campaign controversies over the past few weeks, which included questioning the heroism of John McCain's military service (http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/trump-attacks-mccain-i-like-people-who-werent-captured-120317.html) and a high level aide saying that spousal rape doesn't exist (http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/07/28/donald-trump-aide-apologizes-for-saying-you-cant-rape-your-spouse/?_r=0).
All eyes will be on the billionaire, real estate mogul as his actual knowledge of public policy on both domestic and foreign affairs is put to the test. Trump himself seemed to downplay his performance for Thursday's event in an interview saying "I'm not a debater" (http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-is-lowering-expectations-about-his-debating-skills-2015-8), to ABC News's Jonathan Karl. In any case, Trump's presence will add an unusual amount of public interest to the first debate of the 2016 election cycle, with many tuning in to check just how much he actually is prepared to run for President.
2. Does Carson actually know policy?
On the note of preparedness for the presidency, there's another candidate who will be on the stage Thursday night that has never been elected to public office. Outspoken, conservative Neurosurgeon Ben Carson will be debating beside Trump and the various GOP politicians who make up the remainder of the field. Every other contender besides Trump and Carson will have held public office.
So far only Trump has become widely controversial among the electorate, likely due in part to his high name I.D. among the general public. Carson did cause a bit of a stir back in March, when he seemed to imply (http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/mar/04/ben-carson/ben-carson-many-prisoners-go-straight-come-out-gay/) that prison sex is evidence that homosexuality is a choice. Carson later apologized, but the incident has left some questioning whether he's ready to convince the entire nation that he should be their head of state. Carson would do well to study up and present cogent, fleshed out policy initiatives on Thursday, in order to show that he's a legitimate contender and not just a conservative firebrand.
3. Can Walker go toe to toe with Bush?
At this point in the race, it appears that there are two establishment frontrunners in Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Both candidates consistently poll in the low double digits (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html), behind Donald Trump. If or when Trump implodes, and the race is returned to normalcy, it's entirely possible that a Walker victory (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html) in the first in the nation Iowa Caucuses, followed by a Bush victory (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html) in the New Hampshire Primary, could suffocate the momentum of middle tier candidates, causing all but Walker and Bush to drop out. If only Bush and Walker remain after the first two contests, a slog between the two in the remaining 48 states could prove costly for the eventual nominee.
Of course, there's still plenty of time before the primaries and a number of variables could prevent this narrative from playing out. The biggest question mark is whether Walker has the debate chops to fight in a head to head matchup with his establishment rival. Few would question the debating prowess of Bush, but one can't help but wonder about Governor Walker, especially after his series of small stumbles (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/08/03/why-wont-scott-walker-say-that-president-obama-is-a-christian/) in recent months.
4. Will Tea Party voices drown out more electable candidates?
One of the most stunning things about this batch of candidates is that most of them will be of the bombastic, unelectable type. Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul and Donald Trump all have connections to the far-right, fringe tea party element of the GOP. A sixth Candidate, Chris Christie is more moderate but has a confrontational communication style which has been described by some as bullying (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonkblog/wp/2014/01/08/chris-christies-problem-is-that-hes-really-truly-a-bully/). This leaves just four candidates that might play it straight and save face for the general election in Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio and John Kasich.
It will be interesting to see whether the more electable candidates can introduce themselves to the American public, without being interrupted by the attempts of fringe candidates to bump their poll numbers by throwing red meat to the conservative voting base of the GOP. Right now, all of these fringe candidates are having their support sucked up by the Trump phenomenon. If just one of them decides that the only way to stop Trump, is to beat him at his own game of making outrageous statements and taking ultra-conservative positions, Thursday could prove to be a wild night.
5. Will there be any breakout performances from the lower polling candidates?
The most exciting thing about presidential debates is the element of unpredictability. Any one gaffe or zinger can turn the tide of the early primary process. It remains to be seen whether any of the candidates who managed to squeeze in beneath Trump, Bush and Walker can vault themselves into the top tier. The one to watch here will be Ohio Governor John Kasich (http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/21/politics/john-kasich-election-2016-announcement/).
Kasich is a moderate, who likely poses a real threat to Hillary Clinton in a general election matchup, due to his popularity in his home-state of Ohio, which is a crucial swing state in presidential politics. His late announcement two weeks ago, was expertly timed (http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/john-kasichs-announcement-bump-could-carry-him-debate-stage) to give him just enough of a polling bump to get into the first debate. The timing of Kasich's announcement might just be the first in a series of politically savvy moves designed to put himself in position to make a serious run at the Presidency. Up until this point, Kasich has almost universally been called a dark horse candidate (http://dailycaller.com/2015/07/14/could-ohio-governor-john-kasich-be-2016s-dark-horse/). Thursday night might just be the moment he goes from dark horse, to top tier contender. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. (http://start.westnet.ca/newstempch.php?article=terms.html/) It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.
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1. Will anyone take on Trump?
The biggest question on everyone's mind throughout the night will undoubtedly be how the ever controversial Donald Trump's presence will affect the debate. So far, Trump has retained his status as the frontrunner (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html) in the polls, despite numerous campaign controversies over the past few weeks, which included questioning the heroism of John McCain's military service (http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/trump-attacks-mccain-i-like-people-who-werent-captured-120317.html) and a high level aide saying that spousal rape doesn't exist (http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/07/28/donald-trump-aide-apologizes-for-saying-you-cant-rape-your-spouse/?_r=0).
All eyes will be on the billionaire, real estate mogul as his actual knowledge of public policy on both domestic and foreign affairs is put to the test. Trump himself seemed to downplay his performance for Thursday's event in an interview saying "I'm not a debater" (http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-is-lowering-expectations-about-his-debating-skills-2015-8), to ABC News's Jonathan Karl. In any case, Trump's presence will add an unusual amount of public interest to the first debate of the 2016 election cycle, with many tuning in to check just how much he actually is prepared to run for President.
2. Does Carson actually know policy?
On the note of preparedness for the presidency, there's another candidate who will be on the stage Thursday night that has never been elected to public office. Outspoken, conservative Neurosurgeon Ben Carson will be debating beside Trump and the various GOP politicians who make up the remainder of the field. Every other contender besides Trump and Carson will have held public office.
So far only Trump has become widely controversial among the electorate, likely due in part to his high name I.D. among the general public. Carson did cause a bit of a stir back in March, when he seemed to imply (http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2015/mar/04/ben-carson/ben-carson-many-prisoners-go-straight-come-out-gay/) that prison sex is evidence that homosexuality is a choice. Carson later apologized, but the incident has left some questioning whether he's ready to convince the entire nation that he should be their head of state. Carson would do well to study up and present cogent, fleshed out policy initiatives on Thursday, in order to show that he's a legitimate contender and not just a conservative firebrand.
3. Can Walker go toe to toe with Bush?
At this point in the race, it appears that there are two establishment frontrunners in Jeb Bush and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker. Both candidates consistently poll in the low double digits (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html), behind Donald Trump. If or when Trump implodes, and the race is returned to normalcy, it's entirely possible that a Walker victory (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html) in the first in the nation Iowa Caucuses, followed by a Bush victory (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/nh/new_hampshire_republican_presidential_primary-3350.html) in the New Hampshire Primary, could suffocate the momentum of middle tier candidates, causing all but Walker and Bush to drop out. If only Bush and Walker remain after the first two contests, a slog between the two in the remaining 48 states could prove costly for the eventual nominee.
Of course, there's still plenty of time before the primaries and a number of variables could prevent this narrative from playing out. The biggest question mark is whether Walker has the debate chops to fight in a head to head matchup with his establishment rival. Few would question the debating prowess of Bush, but one can't help but wonder about Governor Walker, especially after his series of small stumbles (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/08/03/why-wont-scott-walker-say-that-president-obama-is-a-christian/) in recent months.
4. Will Tea Party voices drown out more electable candidates?
One of the most stunning things about this batch of candidates is that most of them will be of the bombastic, unelectable type. Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, Rand Paul and Donald Trump all have connections to the far-right, fringe tea party element of the GOP. A sixth Candidate, Chris Christie is more moderate but has a confrontational communication style which has been described by some as bullying (http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonkblog/wp/2014/01/08/chris-christies-problem-is-that-hes-really-truly-a-bully/). This leaves just four candidates that might play it straight and save face for the general election in Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Marco Rubio and John Kasich.
It will be interesting to see whether the more electable candidates can introduce themselves to the American public, without being interrupted by the attempts of fringe candidates to bump their poll numbers by throwing red meat to the conservative voting base of the GOP. Right now, all of these fringe candidates are having their support sucked up by the Trump phenomenon. If just one of them decides that the only way to stop Trump, is to beat him at his own game of making outrageous statements and taking ultra-conservative positions, Thursday could prove to be a wild night.
5. Will there be any breakout performances from the lower polling candidates?
The most exciting thing about presidential debates is the element of unpredictability. Any one gaffe or zinger can turn the tide of the early primary process. It remains to be seen whether any of the candidates who managed to squeeze in beneath Trump, Bush and Walker can vault themselves into the top tier. The one to watch here will be Ohio Governor John Kasich (http://www.cnn.com/2015/07/21/politics/john-kasich-election-2016-announcement/).
Kasich is a moderate, who likely poses a real threat to Hillary Clinton in a general election matchup, due to his popularity in his home-state of Ohio, which is a crucial swing state in presidential politics. His late announcement two weeks ago, was expertly timed (http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/john-kasichs-announcement-bump-could-carry-him-debate-stage) to give him just enough of a polling bump to get into the first debate. The timing of Kasich's announcement might just be the first in a series of politically savvy moves designed to put himself in position to make a serious run at the Presidency. Up until this point, Kasich has almost universally been called a dark horse candidate (http://dailycaller.com/2015/07/14/could-ohio-governor-john-kasich-be-2016s-dark-horse/). Thursday night might just be the moment he goes from dark horse, to top tier contender. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. (http://start.westnet.ca/newstempch.php?article=terms.html/) It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.
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