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01-07-2016, 08:00 PM
ISIS's fall back plan if things fall apart in Syria and Iraq looks as if it is Libya. The recent attacks in Sidra and Zliten, which may also be the work of ISIS, are cases in point. ISIS is trying to strengthen its presence throughout Libya, and has taken control of the coastal city of Sirte (http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-19744533). As ISIS continues to struggle in Syria and Iraq, establishing a viable presence in Libya becomes a more important option. Helping Libya must, therefore, again become a priority for the United States and its allies as part of the war against ISIS and other terrorist organizations.
In his 2015 end of the year press conference, President Obama was asked about US policy toward Libya. He stated clearly that the United States had "underestimated the need to rebuild the government there quickly." He also discussed Libya last September in his speech before the UN General Assembly where he indicated that the United States was willing to help a legitimate Libyan government with its efforts to rebuild.
There are several good reasons for the United States and the global community to focus more on helping Libya. Since fighting ISIS and other terrorist organizations will be a priority for the Administration, supporting Libya must be an integral part of that effort. Libya is becoming a breeding ground for terrorists and criminals, including ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliates. A safe haven in Libya for these elements will have a disastrous effect on North Africa--particularly Egypt and Tunisia--as well as Sub-Saharan Africa and beyond.
While there can be no quick fixes with Libya, there is some reason for guarded optimism. Libyan factions have most recently tried to come together in December to form a unified government. The good news is that even with the fall in oil prices, Libya, which has the largest oil reserves in Africa (http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/scandals-libya-1435127613), should be able to take care of itself economically. If Libya is able to get some outside help, and is able to coalesce around a unified government then it could begin to turn around from a state of chaos and disorder to a more promising future. Of course, these are big "ifs".
From the US perspective, the President has indicated helping Libya is a priority for his final year in office. In addition, Secretary of State Kerry helped lead a UN sponsored conference in December to bring together feuding Libyan government factions as part of an effort to form one, viable government.
Finally, Libya is right next to Europe. It has been a point of departure for refugees seeking asylum in Europe, but it is also potentially an alternative source of energy for Europe, making the Europeans less dependent on Russia. Alternatively, a failed Libya that is controlled by terrorist organizations and organized crime is a potential disaster for European interests in particular.
There are those who believe the US should not have helped with the overthrow of the Qaddafi government. That is a short-sighted assessment of why the US became involved in Qaddafi's overthrow. He was threatening to destroy those who were legitimately protesting against his government. For decades he ruled Libya as if it were his personal fiefdom, ignoring the need to build institutions that would serve the Libyan people, let alone providing a measure of democracy for Libyans. The revolt against Qadaffi was home grown, and getting rid of him was good for Libya and the world.
There was follow up in trying to help Libya rebuild. There were elections. There were efforts to help with a chaotic security situation. There were efforts to help with the building of government institutions and solidify democracy. Despite all of these these efforts, over time, the situation worsened, and while there was still a desire to help Libya, for a variety of reasons it was not sustained at a level where it could make a difference.
Nonetheless, the US and others have remain engaged. The UN has continued to work with the various Libyan government factions, and regional actors have also continued to stay involved with shaping Libya's future. The problem is not all actors and not all solutions are welcomed by the Libyan people.
The UN has in particular had problems with its efforts in Libya. Libyans believe the former UN Special Envoy, Bernardino Leon, contributed to an erosion of trust between Libya and the UN. Instead of acting as an honest broker, he appeared to be taking sides. This made the role of the UN more complicated, and makes the effort of his successor, Martin Kobler, all the more difficult.
The UN sponsored December agreement among the various Libyan ruling factions could pave the way for a Government of National Accord (GNA). But the key to the success of any agreement is that it be transparent and inclusive, including the active support for it by all key Libyan actors. As the International Crisis Group (ICG) indicated in its statement on the UN December agreement, "... there are risks associated with precipitous rush to anoint a government without consolidating domestic support or addressing urgent security concerns."
Getting a legitimate GNA is key to working out the pressing problems confronting Libya. These include addressing Libya's security situation. It includes building institutions that are the foundation for a functioning government that enjoys popular support. It also includes rebuilding the Libyan economy, and, finally, there needs to be a government that is a willing partner in fighting the growing terrorist threat in Libya.
There is much to be done in Libya, and there are any number of important reasons why the United States and its allies should make helping Libya a priority. In addition to all the negative consequences of Libya being a failed state, there is a certain amount of responsibility in helping Libya. All those nations who rightly assisted with the fall of the Qadaffi government should step up and help to ensure that a successor government is not worse, and, hopefully, is much better for the Libyan people and the international community. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. (http://start.westnet.ca/newstempch.php?article=terms.html/) It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.
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In his 2015 end of the year press conference, President Obama was asked about US policy toward Libya. He stated clearly that the United States had "underestimated the need to rebuild the government there quickly." He also discussed Libya last September in his speech before the UN General Assembly where he indicated that the United States was willing to help a legitimate Libyan government with its efforts to rebuild.
There are several good reasons for the United States and the global community to focus more on helping Libya. Since fighting ISIS and other terrorist organizations will be a priority for the Administration, supporting Libya must be an integral part of that effort. Libya is becoming a breeding ground for terrorists and criminals, including ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliates. A safe haven in Libya for these elements will have a disastrous effect on North Africa--particularly Egypt and Tunisia--as well as Sub-Saharan Africa and beyond.
While there can be no quick fixes with Libya, there is some reason for guarded optimism. Libyan factions have most recently tried to come together in December to form a unified government. The good news is that even with the fall in oil prices, Libya, which has the largest oil reserves in Africa (http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/scandals-libya-1435127613), should be able to take care of itself economically. If Libya is able to get some outside help, and is able to coalesce around a unified government then it could begin to turn around from a state of chaos and disorder to a more promising future. Of course, these are big "ifs".
From the US perspective, the President has indicated helping Libya is a priority for his final year in office. In addition, Secretary of State Kerry helped lead a UN sponsored conference in December to bring together feuding Libyan government factions as part of an effort to form one, viable government.
Finally, Libya is right next to Europe. It has been a point of departure for refugees seeking asylum in Europe, but it is also potentially an alternative source of energy for Europe, making the Europeans less dependent on Russia. Alternatively, a failed Libya that is controlled by terrorist organizations and organized crime is a potential disaster for European interests in particular.
There are those who believe the US should not have helped with the overthrow of the Qaddafi government. That is a short-sighted assessment of why the US became involved in Qaddafi's overthrow. He was threatening to destroy those who were legitimately protesting against his government. For decades he ruled Libya as if it were his personal fiefdom, ignoring the need to build institutions that would serve the Libyan people, let alone providing a measure of democracy for Libyans. The revolt against Qadaffi was home grown, and getting rid of him was good for Libya and the world.
There was follow up in trying to help Libya rebuild. There were elections. There were efforts to help with a chaotic security situation. There were efforts to help with the building of government institutions and solidify democracy. Despite all of these these efforts, over time, the situation worsened, and while there was still a desire to help Libya, for a variety of reasons it was not sustained at a level where it could make a difference.
Nonetheless, the US and others have remain engaged. The UN has continued to work with the various Libyan government factions, and regional actors have also continued to stay involved with shaping Libya's future. The problem is not all actors and not all solutions are welcomed by the Libyan people.
The UN has in particular had problems with its efforts in Libya. Libyans believe the former UN Special Envoy, Bernardino Leon, contributed to an erosion of trust between Libya and the UN. Instead of acting as an honest broker, he appeared to be taking sides. This made the role of the UN more complicated, and makes the effort of his successor, Martin Kobler, all the more difficult.
The UN sponsored December agreement among the various Libyan ruling factions could pave the way for a Government of National Accord (GNA). But the key to the success of any agreement is that it be transparent and inclusive, including the active support for it by all key Libyan actors. As the International Crisis Group (ICG) indicated in its statement on the UN December agreement, "... there are risks associated with precipitous rush to anoint a government without consolidating domestic support or addressing urgent security concerns."
Getting a legitimate GNA is key to working out the pressing problems confronting Libya. These include addressing Libya's security situation. It includes building institutions that are the foundation for a functioning government that enjoys popular support. It also includes rebuilding the Libyan economy, and, finally, there needs to be a government that is a willing partner in fighting the growing terrorist threat in Libya.
There is much to be done in Libya, and there are any number of important reasons why the United States and its allies should make helping Libya a priority. In addition to all the negative consequences of Libya being a failed state, there is a certain amount of responsibility in helping Libya. All those nations who rightly assisted with the fall of the Qadaffi government should step up and help to ensure that a successor government is not worse, and, hopefully, is much better for the Libyan people and the international community. -- This feed and its contents are the property of The Huffington Post, and use is subject to our terms. (http://start.westnet.ca/newstempch.php?article=terms.html/) It may be used for personal consumption, but may not be distributed on a website.
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