Handicapping the Party Races Two Months before Iowa

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With just under two months until the Iowa caucuses, it seems an appropriate time to assess the chances of the candidates to win their party's 2016 presidential nomination. Here is the way I see it at the moment:

Republican Nomination

Trump 40%
Cruz 35%
Rubio 17%
Christie 3%
Bush 1%
Kasich 1%
Carson 0%
Someone Else 3%

It now seems exceedingly unlikely that anyone other than the top three will win the GOP nomination. While the Republican establishment will rally around Rubio, I think there is a 75 percent chance that they will find themselves with one of their two nightmare candidates. The New York Times reported earlier this week that leading Republicans "fear that Mr. Trump's nomination would lead to an electoral wipeout." But "some Republicans repelled by Mr. Trump feel little urgency to attack him because, they say, he is preventing what they see as an even less desirable standard-bearer -- Senator Ted Cruz of Texas -- from consolidating the votes of hard-line conservatives."

Democratic Nomination

Clinton 60%
Sanders 35%
O'Malley 1%
Someone Else 4%

I don't think that the Democratic race is quite over yet. Bernie has a chance of overtaking Hillary in both Iowa and New Hampshire. If he were to win either--or both--the national numbers would change. However, even if that happens, the southern primaries are likely to be Hillary's firewall. Her support among African Americans is much stronger than his is. The 4% "Someone else" is just a hedge in the event that a real--unlike been Benghazi, etc.--scandal were to emerge with Hillary.

{ Robert S. McElvaine is an historian and longtime Democratic activist who has contributed to the speeches of several Democratic presidential candidates. }
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